Understanding the Youth Vote
- Posted by Justin Higgins on July 17th, 2008 in
It's all about the money, the money they spend that is. The youth vote is not driven as much by taxes, social security, or welfare, but rather by gas prices and finding a job. I have a slightly different take on the youth vote than most. A lot of folks, including some of my allies on the right side of the aisle, think John McCain has a unique advantage over most Republicans because he cares about global warming. I think he has an advantage, but rather because of his stances on drilling and the economy. Let's take a look at my top issues:
Number one is gas prices. The pain at the pump affects 18-25 year olds even more than it affects the average working American, because cash is short to begin with and kids drive around visiting friends, going to movies, and spending nights out on the town. If John McCain can turn the hatred of the oil companies into hatred of the liberal do-nothings who won't let us drill, he's golden. Issue two is jobs, which is slightly more specific than the economy. John McCain has to spin small-government economics to the youth in a way they can understand. Consider it a challenge.
Sell the surge. John McCain's legacy over the past few years, aside from antagonizing Conservatives, has been his support of the Petraeus strategy. Third party ads in support of the surge should help, but expect a great deal of anti-war ads helping Obama too. It's popular to be anti-war when you're in High School and College, so it needs combated.
Climate change has to be next, right? Wrong. America's religious Conservatives do have children, who grow up and carry with them the same values as their parents. Barack Obama should suffer a huge weakness with this bloc, so marriage and abortion are very key issues, even with the youth vote. Still, polls show youth are more open to homosexuality, so push it too far and you'll lose their support. McCain should play to his strength and support traditional marriage with a bit of "straight talk."
Global warming is sixth, followed closely by the border because teens care about a secure nation. Barack Obama would be upset to find out that hope & change don't do too well on my list. The youth vote is about the green, but it's money more than nature politics.
Unfrtunately You're Right
I am 17 years old and have taken a strong political interest ever since Bush ran against Gore. I support McCain so far in every aspect, so does most of my school, but I am not sure most teenagers are even paying attention to their stands on certain economic and public issues. Overall, I think most teenagers will only vote for the person who fits their young image more closely.
Religious Right
I don't care what the Presidential candidates say - you really should read Dave MacPherson's Yahoo contribution entitled "Dangerous Radicals of the Religious Right." So there. Boris
Bias!
Edward reminds me of one other thing. Don't you think that the economy and gas prices are sort of linked?
And shouldn't the fact that for most youths today, not having a shot in hell of having the same sorts of jobs their parents have/had be a major problem?
You know, unless their parents clean hotel rooms, work in fast food, work retail, are bartenders, are waitresses or waiters or in health care. Since those are the only vocations that have been on the side of net job creation the past ten years.
And that is from the government's own Bureau of Labor Statistics. But I guess if your bias is that the economy is fantastic, you don't think your fellow youths would be concerned.
And what about the cost of higher education? As someone going to school in the fall, I'm sure the cost of things has shocked you. Aren't the youths worried about leaving college with 20-50,000 in school debt? Which might not be the national average, but is close I would guess.
In Response
I think gay marriage and abortion trump climate because a nice chunk of teens are evangelical and likely to vote, and marriage and abortion tend to be top issues for them. Because a nice bit of the teen population thinks they're big issues, they rank above climate, which may be a #3 or #4 issue to most, on the list.
Bias
Justin, I normally think you're pretty balanced in your assessments. I'd agree with you that economic issues probably trump anything else. I doubt very many are going to be convinced by small-government rhetoric, but maybe I'm wrong. After that you lose me. What kind of "straight talk" can McCain use to convince pro-gay teenagers that gay marriage is wrong? And I think you're confusing issues that are important to you with issues important with the general teen population. I'd be shocked if the average teenager thought marriage and abortion were more important than climate. Their parents don't think so, so why should they?
oh please-
-Now, let's see. Do you think Oil Companies are happier with 140 dollar a barrel or were happier when oil was 20 dollars a barrel? And how hard do you think they really want to work to get more of it out there?
Why put more of the product that people need and buy anyway out on the market to just lower the price? That's baaa-aaa-aad capitalism. Remember, this ain't i-pods or x-boxes or new sneakers we're talking about. This a product that very few can do without. And yeah, some folks might not drive across the country on a vactation 'cuz of high prices, but they will sure as shit still have to drive to the grocery store and still drive to work everyday.
And that's if supply problems were really behind the increase in price.
There's no supply issues, as every oil minister and OPEC rep said at the recent coference in Jeddah. Bush can't get his extended family in Saudia Arabia to drill more oil 'cuz they don't see the need to. And they say as much.
The piss-poor value of the dollar, the troubles in the mid-east and speculation with the futures market are the blame for your lil' pals having trouble putting gas in the tank to drive around and not do drugs and not have sex.
So why blame the liberal do-nothings for any of this?
'Conservatives' in Florida and Texas don't want oil rigs off the coast scaring the tourists or ruining the views of the tourists or causing trouble for the tourists. And plenty of 'covservatives' see some value in maintaining the no-drilling in the Alaskan wildlife preserves or whatever those no-drill areas are.
I remember reading a few years ago, that chances are, any oil one day drilled in Alaska would just be sold to China anyway. So why bother?
And nice try with the marriage thing. Any 'young person' with half a brain don't give two shits if some fags get married.
Enjoy the summer!!!!
McCain will have a hard time
McCain will have a hard time with the youth vote no matter WHAT position he takes, because there's a disconnect between most youth and McCain that Obama has unfortunately been able to overcome.
Although McCain leans further left than I would personally like, I believe that he'll provide better wisdom on war issues than we've had during the previous 7 years.
The worst of Iraq may appear to be behind us, but that's misleading.
I think it's going to get more complex as we balance troop withdrawal while keeping a hammer held over Iran's head. We absolutely cannot just vacate the entire area.
There's just no getting around the fact that had McCain's suggestion been followed years earlier - there would have been fewer casualties and I think we would have been much further along
I disagree with McCain on a great many things, however foreign policy prowess is going to be absolutely critical over the next 4 years in comparison to everything else. IMHO.
I think foreign policy will consume most of the next president's term, regardless of who is in the White House. And for that, exprience DOES count.
Danny Vice
http://www.theweeklyvice.com